After a new poll showed his GOP Senate primary challenger Marco Rubio taking a narrow lead, Florida governor Charlie Crist met Barack Obama today in Tampa Bay, where the president announced $8 billion in stimulus funding for high-speed rail stations. Having been needled relentlessly by Rubio for supporting the stimulus and hugging Barack Obama at a rally last spring, might Crist's willingness to appear again with Obama signal, as The New Republic's Jonathan Chait suggested, an openness to switching teams and running as Democrat, or perhaps as an independent?
Not a chance, says the Crist campaign. "Of course Gov. Crist would support the Republican nominee for Senate, but he has every intention of being that Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate," Crist communications director Andrea Saul wrote in an email to THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
Of course, politicians can change their minds. Arlen Specter pledged just a month before he became a Democrat: "To eliminate any doubt, I am a Republican and I am running for re-election in 2010 as a Republican on the Republican ticket." But it's quite unlikely that Crist will run as a Democrat.
Politicians only switch parties to join the winning team. Obama still appeared ascendant last spring when Specter flipped. Now the Democrats are heading toward an epic loss in November, and Specter is being humiliated. (Conservative Republican Pat Toomey is beating Specter by 14 points in one poll.) Furthermore, Obama couldn't clear the field for Specter, who's facing a spirited primary challenge by Rep. Joe Sestak. Crist's moderate record wouldn't pass the Florida Democrats' purity test, as well.
It's also a bad bet for Crist to try to run as an independent. Though smart money is on Rubio to win the primary, it would be foolish to write Crist off given his fundraising advantage and precedent of winning a statewide (gubernatorial) GOP primary before. He's still very popular in the Republican party. According to Quinnipiac, "Crist is viewed favorably among Republicans 64 - 27 percent, 46 - 42 percent among Democrats and 51 - 36 percent among independents."
Rubio just happens to be both more conservative and exciting than Crist, which is why Rubio will probably win the primary.
In many ways, the Florida primary is much like the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. Just as Obama surged from behind to beat Hillary, Rubio, a young, charistmatic, ethnic minority, who's more in tune with the base, will likely defeat Crist, the well-funded, triangulating, annointed-by-the-establishment heir to the nomination. Both Crist (on the stimulus) and Hillary (on the Iraq war) committed the original sin of supporting the opposing party's president.
So what's Crist's logical move if he loses the August primary? Take a quick vacation, and then start up a campaign against Democratic senator Bill Nelson, who's up for re-election in 2012. The GOP would surely prefer Crist to Nelson in the Senate--even if Crist did shake Obama's hand for 27 seconds today.