Anthony Cordesman opens his op-ed in today's Washington Post:
No one can return from the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan, as I recently did, without believing that these are wars that can still be won. They are also clearly wars that can still be lost, but visits to the battlefield show that these conflicts are very different from the wars being described in American political campaigns and most of the debates outside the United States.
Cordesman is, in fact, far more optimistic about the situation in Iraq, where he says "al-Qaeda is clearly losing in every province," than Afghanistan, where "the Taliban is sharply expanding its support areas as well as its political and economic influence." Part of the blame for this backsliding in Afghanistan surely rests with our NATO allies, who, with a few notable exceptions, have failed to commit the necessary resources to that fight. But the failure is also one of multilateralism. As we've seen in Iraq over the last year, effective counterinsurgency requires unity of effort and unity of command. Victory in Afghanistan will require more troops, more resources, and a commander like Petraeus who can direct the full weight of Coalition forces where they are needed most. Cordesman concludes:
We either need long-term commitments, effective long-term resources and strategic patience -- or we do not need enemies. We will defeat ourselves [in both wars].
John McCain ought to steal that line for his stump speech.