As Huckabee rises, Patrick Ruffini speaks truth to two presidential campaigns:
For Rudy to survive, his campaign mantra for the next 29 days must be: national security, national security, national security. Is the national security party really going to nominate a former governor with zero national security experience to face al Qaeda? This is Rudy's key differentiator against Huckabee - and Mitt too. It is also McCain's narrative - I saw first hand at the Florida debate how McCain gained goodwill just by being the only one to talk about the war. But by owning McCain's issue - and by remaining the stronger of the two - McCain's voters may finally get the hint and go Rudy. The rap on Rudy is that he talks about 9/11 incessantly. If only that were so, he'd be doing a lot better. The reason Rudy has remained so strong for so long is not that he cut the welfare rolls in New York City, it's not because he kicked the squeegies out, and it's not even the dramatic reduction in crime he's best known for. He loves to talk about these things, but primary voters don't care. The one and only reason Giuliani was ever a national frontrunner is because of his performance on 9/11 and what that said about his ability to lead in a crisis. Why he hasn't run a campaign that is singularly evocative of that theme - just as Mitt has glossed over his experience as a turnaround artist - is baffling. Rudy's message seems to have devolved into a 1996 Bill Clinton school uniforms message, just as Mitt's has become a conservative panderfest.
The trouble with Giuliani's "I saved New York, I can save America" campaign is twofold; one, it's backward looking, and two, it's not entirely clear that the United States in 2007 is in the same shape as New York City circa 1993. In fact, it's more plausible to argue that the United States today is in far better shape than New York back then. If Giuliani could change the conversation back to his national security strength, he'd be helped tremendously. The problem with this strategy may be that, as David Brooks points out today, the country seems ready to move beyond the war on terror.