Conservatism Is in Good Shape . . .

The Republican party is in a whole lot of trouble. The latest Pew Research Center report on "Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes" shows that fewer than 25 percent of voters identify with the GOP, the lowest rating for the party in almost 20 years. The Republican party is older and less diverse than the Democratic party, as well as the country at large. And the rapid emergence of voters under 30 years old--the Millennial Generation--diminishes the salience of conservative values politics.

Good news for Democrats, right? Not quite. The Pew study, one of the most comprehensive around, does show that the GOP is dejected and demoralized. But Republican disarray hasn't guaranteed Democratic hegemony. The proportion of the electorate that identifies as Democratic in the Pew survey is well within its 20-year average. The voters who no longer identify as Republican haven't all gone to the Democrats. Most have become independents. Indeed, Pew reveals that "the proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years."

The Pew survey paints a complex picture of a befuddled American electorate. The GOP is on the downswing, but the country is no more liberal than usual, and the Democrats haven't fully capitalized on their opponents' weaknesses. The GOP will probably recover from the Bush years. But, as things stand, the party also faces a demographic reckoning in the not-so-distant future. The longterm outlook is cloudy. As always.

Why is the Pew report important? Because it dispels a political myth.

You've no doubt heard: The 2006 and 2008 elections show that the United States has taken a decisive turn to the left. Our politics has, for sure. But the electorate hasn't. There may be more independents, but they aren't liberals. Overall, according to Pew, the ratio between the number of voters who say they are conservative (37 percent) and the number who say they are liberal (19 percent) "has remained largely stable over the past nine years, even while the balance of party affiliation has changed substantially."

The Pew survey asked a variety of questions about the role government ought to play in the economy. Even in the midst of a recession and banking crisis, a majority of voters said the "federal government controls too much of our daily lives" and "government regulation of business usually does more harm than good." Seventy-two percent of voters said that "poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs." And 46 percent of respondents said they were "concerned about the government becoming too involved in health care."

The Pew data buttress other surveys that have shown public unease at liberal borrow, tax, and spend policies that expand government and the national debt. The data also show public antagonism toward a key Democratic constituency: organized labor. Seventy-six percent of respondents said that "the strength of this country today is mostly based on the success of American business." The percentage of independents who agree with the proposition that "labor unions are necessary to protect the working person" is at 53 percent, a 20-year low.

Big Labor drives the Obama agenda, including legislation to bypass the secret ballot in union elections and opposition to free trade agreements. But the unions are out of step with the public. Huge majorities oppose killing the secret ballot. Furthermore, according to Pew, the percentage of voters who agree that "free trade agreements are a good thing" for the United States has actually increased by 9 points in the last year, to 44 percent.

One more finding that spells trouble for liberals: Only 49 percent of respondents said that "people should be willing to pay higher prices in order to protect the environment." That means the Democrats are going to have difficulty passing legislation that would cap carbon emissions and thereby raise energy prices across the board.

None of this is to say that the outlook is rosy for Republicans. Far from it. The Pew data reveal four main issues for the GOP: hardly anyone wants to be associated with it, less than a quarter of self-identified Republicans are enthusiastic about their own party, support for Republicans among Hispanics (an important ethnic group) has plunged since 2004, and the incoming cohort of under-30 voters is far more accepting of homosexuality than previous generations, pitting them against the GOP's religious conservative base.

Energetic, imaginative Republican politicians will be able to correct the first two problems. As the precipitous decline in GOP ranks proves, partisan identification is subject to rapid swings. Since the ideological composition of the electorate hasn't changed all that much over the last half-decade, it's likely that the Republicans' plummeting reputation is due to President Bush's dismal second term and the feckless, corrupt GOP Congresses.

But Bush is gone and the GOP congressional majority is no more. Republicans therefore have an opportunity to make up for past mistakes. They can pick fights on issues that play to their strengths. Then Republican partisans will become enthused about their party. And you'll slowly see some of those independents move back to the GOP.

The Republicans' demographic issues will be more difficult to resolve. Once an ethnic, racial, or religious group swings heavily toward one party, it's difficult to entice them to switch sides. These days, the Democrats are picking up support among new immigrants to the United States from East and South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. And the Millennial Generation looks decidedly liberal: nontraditionally religious, socially tolerant, environmentally conscious, and goo-goo when it comes to foreign policy. Another plus for the Democrats.

Then again, the political future is never predetermined. Pew director Andrew Kohut says he's learned that public opinion is responsive to events. The Obama administration could flop. Unforeseen occurrences could upend the debate. New, charismatic figures could arrive on the scene. When they do, they're likely to encounter a voting public skeptical of big government--and ready to embrace a politics of personal freedom and fiscal responsibility.

Matthew Continetti is the associate editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD .