Clinton's "Inevitability," Cont.

Via Marc Ambinder, here is Charles Franklin's analysis of Hillary Clinton's polling trends:

So on the basis of these three polls, and 'apples-to-apples' comparisons of polls done by the same polling organization, there is pretty good reason to think Clinton has dropped a few points in New Hampshire, and that Obama has gained a few. The Clinton average change in the three polls is -5.7 points, and Obama's gain is 4.7 points.

And another one of Franklin's analytical methods reveals:

We have a second estimator that picks up changes more quickly, though it can fall victim to noisy data and 'see' a change when there isn't really one. So with some risk, it is fun to compare the more sensitive 'red' estimator with the standard 'blue' one. Red reveals two interesting details not visible in the blue trends. Clinton appears to have flattened out, at least, starting in late September. Obama had a noticeable dip in August-September, and since that time has been trending up for over a month.

There is still plenty of time before any actual voting occurs, and no doubt these trends will change. But people seem to be waking up to the fact that Clinton not only may lose the presidency, but also her party's presidential nomination.