CLIMATE COMPLEXITY

JIM MANZI'S "The Icarus Syndrome" (September 8) is one of the best pieces I have read anywhere on global warming. Manzi incorporates a discussion of probability and statistics into his assessment of how to proceed with global warming policy. Unfortunately, most reporters fall very short when it comes to discussing modeling, probability, and statistics.

Three aspects of global warming hype that have always concerned me are the relative lack of data on global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations, the accuracy of that data, and the quality of global climate models. An analogy is useful. Financial models to predict equity prices are based upon rational expectations theory and have been used by the private sector to build real-world models upon which billions of dollars are risked every day. There is great self-interest motivating the development, testing, and application of these models, and their complexity is not nearly as great as global climate models. Global climate models are not nearly as well developed nor tested as rational expectations models have been. Secondly, the data available to financial markets are much better in both quantity and quality than are the data on global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations. Given the complex nature of global climate, the age of the earth, and the relative lack of accurate data, forecasting anything meaningful or useful using the relative paucity of data on global climate with relatively poor models is like trying to predict the future levels of equity markets using about a day's worth of price data from equity markets.

DENNIS O'NEILL
Chicago, Ill.

SECULAR CONSERVATISM

JAMES GRANT ("Prey for Religion," September 22) has it exactly right when he poses the question, "Just what, exactly, is secular about pandering to Islamists?"

What is needed is not a religious revival in the West to counter jihadist terrorism. What is needed is a revival of confidence in the demonstrated superiority of our secular republic.

Though I am not myself a religious believer, or perhaps because I am not, I feel a firm attachment to the "positive values" that define our secular republic. Lest I be misread, I am opposed to moral relativism, socialism, "a cult of the self," indiscriminate tolerance, and an undermining of patriotism.

Perhaps the conservative movement could find space in its ranks for my ilk before it's too late. Given the rising tide of religious hysteria in the East-and the relativism, secular and religious, by which it is excused in the West-this would be a welcome change in what promises to become an even more dangerous world.

BRIAN STEWART
Fort Benning, Ga.

WHAT'S YOUR EXCUSE?

IN "CAN WE TALK?" (September 8), Andrew Ferguson asks three times, "What do we live for?" When I was in fourth grade near Sandy Spring, Maryland, none of my peers was very discreet. Those 10-year-olds presented the ethical probing of Leon Kass and Eric Cohen unabashedly.

They asked, "What's your excuse for living?"

Cohen calls this the "central question of bioethics" and Ferguson notes that many people come up with "a pretty sneaky answer" to the question by refusing to answer it. There are only two possible answers, two possible excuses for living. The first possible answer is "to glorify yourself and your kind." The second is "to glorify the Creator of everything and of everybody." Few today are able to see that it is the second answer that best achieves happiness.

PIERS WOODRIFF
Somerset, Va.

LIFE IN THE LAST FRONTIER

I THOUGHT JESSICA GAVORA'S article on Gov. Sarah Palin's experience playing high school basketball ("Game Changer," September 15) was excellent and very well written. However, I think Gavora glosses over some of the unique demands of life in Alaska as she briefly mentions the harrowing plane rides to games and long bus rides. But Americans in the Lower 48 may not know about the long period of time with little sun, the explosion of light during the summer, the obvious harshness of winter, or the vastness and ever present threat of nature, which underscore a need for Alaskans to be self-reliant and independent. Palin's experiences on the basketball court and her Alaska upbringing are two factors that helped make Palin the person she is today.

CHARLES J. CERNANSKY
Stamford, Conn.

PHOENIXVILLE PRIDE

IMAGINE MY SURPRISE and pleasure at discovering Shawn Macomber's "Alien Nation" article about my hometown hero, the Blob (September 15). I fondly recalled going to the first Blobfest with my sister-in-law and two children. We stood behind barricades as the Blob in a large bucket was displayed (it was a little scary) and now-middle-aged teenagers reenacting the movie scene came running and screaming out of the movie theater. It was great fun, and I'm glad the tradition has continued.

CHRIS WINTERS
Hudson, Ohio