In this fascinating extract from his new book, John Lee of the Australian Center for Independent Studies invokes Robert Conquest and goes on to explain Beijing's predicament:
That the reported instances of [Chinese social] unrest are rising exponentially obviously suggests a rising tide of discontent. However, most analyses stop there because little information is revealed by the Government about the nature of these instances and what they concern. What we mostly hear from the Chinese Government is talk of procedures established to mitigate the seriousness of these incidents. Piecing together a picture of what is happening has mostly been left to intrepid insiders and determined reporters. These piecemeal reports, which are becoming more lucid and comprehensive, point to scenarios that have variously been described as a tipping point, a time bomb and a precipice for the regime. Indeed, official media channels can no longer hide (and perhaps no longer want to hide) the rising instances of social unrest. These instances are the most tangible signs of an increasingly disgruntled population. Social unrest in China: Officially reported instances of social unrest (involving 15 or more people) have risen from 8700 in 1993 to 87,000 in 2005 (the latest available figures). This is about 240 instances each day. The first important point about the rising instances of social unrest is that it indicates a citizenry that is increasingly defiant or unafraid of the authoritarian coercive apparatus. This means the level of discontent is so profound that the protesters no longer care about the consequences of unrest or that the regime's ability to enforce compliance and order has been seriously compromised. As the truth is undoubtedly a combination of both, this is worrying news for any authoritarian government.
Lee no longer views China as a totalitarian state, but as an authoritarian state with little control over its own populace. When you combine Lee's analysis with reports like this, the scope of the crisis facing the Chinese Communist party begins to sound familiar.