Here's a Soren Dayton post that summarizes many of the questions surrounding the GOP primary. Dayton wants to know eight things: When will the primary calendar coalesce? Will Giuliani falter? Will Giuliani still be able to compete in Florida and on February 5 if he under-performs in the early states? Will McCain benefit from Rudy's fall, if it happens? Why hasn't Thompson attacked Romney? Who will be the first to go negative on Romney? Where does Huckabee go from here? And could Huckabee translate a first- or second-place finish in Iowa into a solid finish in South Carolina? Dayton concludes:
This is unsettled. It is plausible that the story out of Iowa is Huckabee. And the story out of New Hampshire is McCain. Michigan is a jump ball. Rudy could come in 2nd in all of these. Romney could be in first in all of these. There are just a lot of moving parts.
It's confusing! And yet the fundamental dynamic in this " perpetual campaign" has been relatively unchanged. Romney leads in the early states while Giuliani leads nationally. Thompson, without much organization or executive experience, is second in the national polls, in Iowa, and in Florida, and is tied in South Carolina. To date, the two variables have been Huckabee's surprise performance and McCain's tenuous comeback. But that's not many variables at all. In fact, the campaign has been relatively boring. So here are two more questions for Dayton's list: When will the next variable enter the equation? When will the "real" campaign begin?