Manchester, New Hampshire
IN THE PAST, counting Bob Smith out has been a mistake. The embattled Republican senator from New Hampshire -- a plain-spoken, tireless defender of the Second Amendment, unborn babies, and Elian Gonzalez's Miami relatives -- survived naval service in the Gulf of Tonkin from 1965 to 1967. He weathered tough primary races for his House seat in the early 1980s.
He withstood a near-death experience at the hands of former U.S. representative Dick Swett in the 1996 Senate race. (The networks prematurely declared Smith the loser, and had to retract their reports late that Election Night.)
He left the Republican party in disgust, started to run for president as an Independent, rejoined the Republican party, and became a powerful committee chairman -- all during the summer and fall of 1999.
So anyone who decides Smith can't win in 2002 because his polling numbers are poor (37 percent approval among state voters, according to a recent Becker Institute poll, the worst of any of the 34 senators facing reelection next year) either underestimates Bob Smith -- or has noticed something different about him this time around.
Indeed, for the first time in his political career, it seems many of Bob Smith's friends don't want him to run again -- both for his own good, and for the good of a Republican party that barely controls the Senate. To compensate for this lack of confidence from his own team, the rock-ribbed Reaganite is using his chairmanship of the Senate Environment and Public Works committee to bring goodies back to New Hampshire. The once frugal politician has nailed down grants for downtown theaters and airport access roads in Manchester, the state's largest city.
In addition to pork, Smith is using his chairmanship to side with environmentalists against President George W. Bush's energy policy, which includes drilling for oil in Alaska. Smith has also banded with Al Gore and those who want to classify carbon dioxide emissions from power plants as pollutants.
It's hard to explain Smith's turn to the left without looking at more polls. Though Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen has not yet declared a bid for the Senate, a mid-March Becker poll showed her defeating Smith 51 percent to 35 percent. An American Research Group poll in January showed a smaller but still double-digit lead for Shaheen over Smith: 48 percent to 38 percent.
Long before these numbers began circulating, many were hoping Smith would step aside and allow a different conservative -- with less political baggage -- to run against Shaheen. Some of them have started speaking up.
Paul Young of Exeter, former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican party, aid to the Jack Kemp and Steve Forbes primary campaigns, and co-founder of the Conservative Political Victory Fund, is disturbed by Smith's turn to the left on environmental issues and is no longer supporting his reelection.
Says Young: "I had great hope in the beginning of Bob Smith's chairmanship that he'd come back to New Hampshire, reshape his image, and overcome his negatives. A lot of conservatives shared that hope. But those negatives aren't going away, and time is running out. John Sununu may be our last chance to save the seat."
Young's gentle reproach is typical of New Hampshire conservatives. Most of them love Smith for all his work for their cherished causes, yet are hopping he'll step aside for John E. Sununu, congressman from the eastern district and son of the former governor and White House chief of staff. With Sununu's 100 percent rating from National Right to Life and his "A" from the National Rifle Association, he's clearly a possible alternative to Smith. Al Rubega, president of Gun Owners of New Hampshire, says he'll stand by Smith, but adds, "I'm a huge supporter of both of them."
Karen Testerman, who directed Gary Bauer's New Hampshire campaign in 2000, appreciates Bob Smith's commitment on abortion. But she also sees how his changing policies on the environment are jeopardizing his effectiveness. "He's upset a lot of people and he's splitting his base," says Testerman, now the president of Cornerstone Policy Research, New Hampshire's family policy council.
"He can't afford to split his base. He barely won last time," says Testerman with concern.
Dave Carney of Hancock, who has joined with conservative former congressman Chuck Douglas in creating draftsununu.com, thinks Smith's over-ambitious presidential bid -- which began with little home-state support and ended with less -- is to blame for his loss of popularity in New Hampshire. With a 50-50 split in the Senate, explains Carney, many Republicans are disinclined to carry Bob Smith over the finish line again.
Smith's former allies in Washington tend to be harsher: "Bob Smith betrayed the conservative movement by whoring after the environmentalists, and he doesn't have the candle-power to realize they're not going to lift a finger for him [in 2002]," asserts Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform in Washington, D.C.
Norquist's grass-roots organization always gave high marks to Smith, one of a handful in the Senate with the courage to oppose higher taxes and more regulations. But combine Smith's weakness at home with his new policy proposals, and Norquist is exasperated. "The Republican party and the conservative movement should say, 'Thank you very much; it's time for you to retire.'"
When Smith took over the committee on the environment, he promised to listen to both sides of the debate. But his courtship of the Green crowd took Norquist and others by surprise. "He's basically decided to do whatever it takes to get reelected in 2002," remarks Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the think tank whose science debunks global warming hype. "It will alienate his base supporters, but the environmentalists will never support him over a Democrat," Ebell says.
A Republican in good standing with his own party could gamble that a disaffected conservative base has no one else to support in an election. That's because Republicans would protect such a member from an ugly primary battle. But no one has stepped forward to dissuade Sununu from challenging Smith.
After Sununu told John DiStaso of the Manchester Union Leader on March 21 that he is considering running for the Senate to preserve the Republican majority, the two other members of New Hampshire's congressional delegation -- senator Judd Gregg and representative Charlie Bass -- declined to comment. The silence was deafening.
The next day, Senate majority leader Trent Lott appeared with Smith at a pre-scheduled fund-raiser in Concord. Though Lott is said to have great affection for Smith, he stopped far short of endorsing his colleague for reelection. He told DiStaso, "[National Republicans] are generally supportive of our sitting incumbent senators. Now, if the contest is between an incumbent and a credible opponent, you certainly have to be considerate of that."
Then Lott went on to call Sununu "an outstanding congressman who does a great job in the House." Is it a stretch to infer Lott thinks Sununu is that "credible opponent"?
Sununu garners support from both wings of the Republican party in New Hampshire. Former governor Steve Merrill, a moderate conservative, and former senator Warren Rudman, a liberal Republican, rushed to endorse Sununu last month.
The only major statewide Republican to counter with an endorsement for Smith was former senator Gordon Humphrey -- the third consecutive candidate Jeanne Shaheen has devoured in a gubernatorial election. Smith and Humphrey are the oldest of friends, with a political relationship that dates back to the early 1980s. "[Smith] had the guts to support me [in 2000], so I'm going to have the guts to support him," Humphrey told John DiStaso.
"Guts?"
Such tepid backing may be the best Smith can expect from his old friends. And if his own friends aren't crazy about his running again, the time may soon come to count out Bob Smith.
Bernadette Malone is editorial page editor of the Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News in Manchester, New Hampshire.