Lately all eyes have been on Washington, but the biggest political surprises tend to happen in the states. That's where insurgent candidates are made, where policy experimentation takes place, and where social and political movements start. So be sure to pay attention to developments in New Jersey, where four candidates are fighting to be the Republican who will challenge Governor Jon Corzine in the fall. The primary is set for the first week of June. And it's quickly becoming a two-man race. That was the lesson of a nonbinding straw poll held this week in Camden County. Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie took 77 percent of the vote. Former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan came in second with 23 percent. The two other candidates, Rick Merkt and Brian Levine, did not receive any votes. Yes, the poll is nonbinding and there's a while to go before primary day. But Christie is clearly the establishment candidate in the race. He has a strong biography and a moderate record on social issues. He wants to be the next Christie Todd Whitman. Former mayor Lonegan is an unreconstructed Reaganite who wants to slash spending, cut taxes, and govern as a social conservative. He first won election in 1995, then was reelected with 65 percent of the vote. An impressive feat, considering Democrats have a two-to-one advantage in voter registration in Bogota. Lonegan also has money. He's qualified for state matching funds and has raised close to a million dollars so far. Christie hasn't disclosed how much he's raised. He'll likely raise a lot, since the state GOP establishment will close ranks behind him. But a well-financed conservative challenger like Lonegan shouldn't be counted out. If he's competitive with Christie in the money race, Lonegan's right-wing bonafides could rally conservative activists -- the folks who actually vote in the primaries -- behind him. It's happened before, most recently when Jersey City mayor Brent Schundler defeated former congressman Bob Franks in 2001. Upsets happen. This is a race to watch.