Gideon Rachman lists here his top five most important events in 2007. Why? Because "I like making lists." At least he's honest! Here are Rachman's choices: The surge; Putin's Munich speech in which the Russian strongman accused the United States of "plunging the world into an abyss of conflicts"; the credit crunch that began in August; PetroChina's valuation as the world's largest company; and Musharraf's declaration of a "state of emergency" in Pakistan in November. If you sense a theme here, you are right:
The link is the growing strain on the world's sole superpower. America is locked into a draining and demoralising war. Russia, an old adversary, is becoming more assertive. China, a new rival, is on the rise. Pakistan, a vital ally, threatens to fall apart. The US economy is under more strain than for years. Happy new year.
Such lists are arbitrary, and one tends to choose events, as Rachman did, that fit into the way one already sees the world. Still, the surge and its consequences probably will be long remembered as the most important events of 2007. For me, the point is less which events are more important than others than the realization that none of Rachman's top five was preordained. Bush easily could have adopted the Iraq Study Group recommendations. Few predicted Putin would reach new heights of bellicosity. China could have waited longer to float 2.2 percent of PetroChina on the Shanghai market. And Musharraf could have gone ahead with a peaceful transition of power. We live in a turbulent and unpredictable - not to mention risky and dangerous - world. Our knowledge is small and our ignorance is vast. Makes you wonder what will be on Rachman's list next December.