This Kate O'Beirne piece in National Review is well worth your time. O'Beirne argues that conservatives ought to take a second look at John McCain:
The Christian-conservative leaders toying with the ruinous idea of a third-party challenge represent the legitimate concern that the nomination of Rudy Giuliani would fracture the winning coalition that has prevailed in five of the last seven presidential elections. The coalition includes both evangelicals and ethnic Catholics who have backed Republican candidates based on their positions on social and cultural issues rather than on tax policy or national security. In a year when Democrats are heavily favored to win the White House, many conservatives are unwilling to experiment with the notion that a wholly new coalition, with fewer social and cultural conservatives, will coalesce around a socially liberal Northeast Republican. No such candidate has been recently elected statewide, even in the Northeast.
O'Beirne further argues that Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson both have liabilities which McCain does not possess. And she notes the strange dynamic of the 2008 GOP primary:
Giuliani enjoys a persistent perch at the top of the national polls, while the resistance to his candidacy remains equally persistent. Pollster Scott Rasmussen notes that the former mayor's support is less than 30 percent and doubts that it can grow by much. (Hillary Clinton's lead is far more formidable, besting her nearest competitor by 30 points in some national polls.) Republican voters obviously know Giuliani as "America's Mayor," a hero of 9/11 - but despite this positive image as a tested, tough leader, a large majority of Republicans resist him. Even his supporters aren't well-informed about his positions: A September CBS/New York Times poll found that only 41 percent of those who favored Giuliani for the nomination knew that he is pro-choice on abortion. National polling by Pew Research has found that only 4 out of 10 Republicans nationwide are able to identify his abortion position. It is hard to imagine his support growing among conservative voters, given what they will come to learn about both his liberal views on social issues and his operatic personal life.
The problem is that, while Giuliani has been unable to crack more than 30 to 35 percent of the national GOP vote for some time now, McCain's trend-line has been steadily downward, despite a recent revival nationally and in New Hampshire. It's good for McCain that this recent revival has coincided with the onset of the real campaign. It's bad for McCain that the revival arrives just as his campaign lurches into the red.