The latest issue of Parameters has an interesting piece, The Future of Afghanistan, by Ali A. Jalali, the nation's interior minister from January 2003 to September 2005. He gives a comprehensive review of what's going on the ground and also warns that the progress made in Afghanistan could vanish if the international community loses interest in the nation.
At the end of the Bonn Process, Afghanistan finds itself at a crossroads. Continued international security and economic assistance, for at least ten more years, and sustained domestic leadership for reform will enable the country to build on achievements made during the past four years, and enable it to become a success story in the region. The other option is for the country to slide back into the difficult past of instability and tension. Given the potentially devastating impact of a failed Afghan state in a globalizing world, leaving Afghanistan can no longer be an option. The key to the development of democracy and prosperity in Afghanistan is building a viable and capable state and a robust economy. The Bonn Process was dominated by an international agenda for security following the overthrow of the Taliban regime and their al Qaeda allies. The post-Bonn process needs to be based on an Afghan agenda for long-term development as a key to sustained peace and stability. The Bonn Process required Afghanistan to meet certain benchmarks toward democratic development. The succeeding process should identify how the international community can support the implementation of an Afghan development strategy over the next five years. The result should be a compact between the international community and the Afghan government on their joint effort to achieve a clearly defined end-state.