In a flash, Washington changed. With the collapse of their health care plan, the political power of President Trump and congressional Republicans took a hit. And since power is a zero-sum game, Democrats, the bureaucracy, liberal interest groups, and the media were big winners.
In Washington, you can see and feel the change. Republicans and their allies are downcast. The air has come out of their legislative balloon. They recognize that while the change may not be permanent, it is significant. Democrats? They were smiling and laughing at their press conference after the GOP bill died last Friday. They haven't been this elated since Election Day.
The change affects the tax cut bill that Trump and the GOP now see as their top priority. The cuts are sure to be smaller than they would have been. They won't match the potency of the 1986 tax reform legislation that propelled the economy on a growth path that lasted two decades.
And that's just one tangible impact of the change—the biggest one. The Obamacare fallout will probably weaken Republicans in enacting a meaningful military buildup, the wall on the Southern border, and an overall budget.
The intangible effects are also considerable. The ability of Republicans to govern effectively is now in question. Athletes talk about how a big win boosts confidence and a loss deflates it. GOP confidence has dissipated.
Washington is a liberal town, even when the White House, Senate, and House are in Republican hands. When they do well, Washington's hostility slackens, as it did occasionally in the Reagan years. When Republicans falter badly, the town's intolerance soars. And indeed it has.
The biggest problem for Republicans, after its failure to repeal and replace Obamacare, is … Obamacare. It's been Democratic property since it was enacted in 2010. After pulling his bill off the House floor, speaker Paul Ryan said Obamacare is "the law of the land." And it will be for the time being.
The question is who owns it. Democrats, the media, and every interest group that's not overtly conservative will say Republicans are owners. I suspect they will prevail.
The argument will go like this, if it hasn't already: Obamacare is the nation's undisputed health care system. To keep it from falling apart, Republicans are obligated to bail it out. They're in charge. They're the government. That means billions more in subsidies to keep insurance companies from dropping out of the system and to lower premiums.
Trump has talked about letting Obamacare die on its own. But many millions would lose their insurance in such a crisis. Ignoring them would be politically unpalatable. In this situation, there are plenty of Republicans on Capitol Hill who will vote for a bailout.
What about Trump? The White House has indicated he's willing to deal with Democrats on health care. At the moment, he would get zilch in negotiations. His involvement would consist of little more than outright surrender.
Trump has kept a stiff upper lip since the change in Washington. But he's weaker. His skill as a negotiator in real estate deals didn't translate to politics. His argument to dissident Republicans last week was simply that they must vote for repeal and replace. At least that's the way it was reported.
The president will benefit when Neil Gorsuch is confirmed to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. He may get to pick a second nominee this summer if Justice Anthony Kennedy, 80, decides to retire. Putting two of his choices on the High Court in his first year would be a striking achievement. And it offers a path to political recovery.