In this week's newsletter, the boss looks at the 2014 midterm election:
In last week's editorial, I wrote: The danger over the next six weeks is that Republican strategists and donors will play it safe and fail to take advantage of the opportunities out there. Obviously the focus will be, as it has to be, on the seven swing Senate seats, as well as on making sure Republicans hold Kansas and Georgia. But there are opportunities beyond the big seven, in Michigan (an open seat) and in one or more of Minnesota, Virginia, Oregon, New Jersey, and Illinois-in all of which incumbent Democratic senators are under or only just above 50 percent in the polls.... This is the time to think big. I had the sense a week and a half ago, when I wrote this, that things could break big for the Republicans. For an interesting analysis along these lines, see Sean Trende's recent piece at RealClearPolitics. And now there's more evidence at the state level to back up my hunch. In the "Romney seven" states--states that Romney carried in 2012 where Republicans are seeking to pick up a Democratic Senate seat--the Republican has a pretty clear lead in six, with only North Carolina lagging (and even that's closing). In the next tier of three swing states, there's movement in a Republican direction.Sunday's Des Moines Register poll has Joni Ernst up 6 in Iowa, after previously showing the race tied; Cory Gardner in Colorado has now taken the lead in a couple of polls after having been behind; and Scott Brown has basically pulled even in New Hampshire. And now we're seeing movement in the next tier, the long shot states. Here in Virginia in particular, where Ed Gillespie has been trailing incumbent Democrat Mark Warner by about 20 points in most polls, two surveys late last week had him down by only 9 and 12 points. I spoke with Gillespie late in the week. You might expect him to be bullish on his own race, but he's a hard-headed guy, and I think he genuinely believes he has a real shot. He points out that Northern Virginia in particular, with lots of independent and loosely affiliated voters, often breaks late (e.g., to Jim Webb in 2006, or to George Allen in 1993). Gillespie has just begun his ad buys in Northern Virginia, and he thinks there's plenty of room for movement here. Gillespie also says he has a better ground game throughout the state than Warner (the national Democrats have been taking Virginia for granted, and the unions have less of a presence here than in many states); he's confident he'll do well in the debates; and he's running a substantive, policy-heavy campaign, which should wear well by contrast with Warner's light-as-air campaign. Gillespie also reminded me of the post I wrote late on election night 2013, after Ken Cuccinelli had lost the gubernatorial race narrowly to Terry McAuliffe. It was entitled "Warner Can Be Beat:" This year, Virginia Republicans were divided and had an easily caricatured candidate at the top of the ticket who ran a defensive campaign and was massively outspent ... and the state still broke basically 50-50. Next year, incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner will be on the ballot. Warner's main Senate accomplishment was casting the deciding vote for Obamacare. Obamacare stood at 46-53 approval in Tuesday's Virginia exit polls, polls that overstated McAuliffe's margin by five points, so Obamacare probably was really about 44-56 in Virginia on Election Day. Obamacare's numbers could well get worse over the next year. An impressive Republican candidate who could unite the party, resist caricature, raise money and run a decent Obamacare-focused campaign-especially one who wasn't a career politician-would have a real chance to beat Warner a year from now. Will someone step forward for the good of the state and the nation? Gillespie claims the post helped persuade him to seriously consider running. Whether or not that's really the case, I stand by the analysis. And I was amused to see the Washington Post acknowledge last week that maybe its dismissal of Gillespie's chances has been premature. (The Post, by the way, had a poll a week before election day last year showing Cuccinelli losing by 12; he lost by 2.) So watch Gillespie in Virginia--along with Terri Lynn Land in Michigan and Jeff Bell in New Jersey. The Democrats flipped 13 Republican Senate seats in 1958. Could Republicans pick up 13 this year? Hey, think big!
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